Possible scenario
Contained IRGC Crackdown
45% Chance
The most likely path is a localized IRGC and police operation in Sistan and Baluchestan focused on Saravan, Rask, and nearby border villages. Tehran frames Brigadier General Hossein Zarifi's death as a counterterrorism incident but avoids blaming Islamabad directly.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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