Possible scenario
Limited Kinetic Test
18% Chance
Russia conducts a small kinetic action to test NATO cohesion while trying to keep the conflict geographically contained. The highest-risk flashpoints are Estonia, Latvia, the Suwałki corridor and the Baltic Sea around Bornholm and Gotland.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.