Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
45% Chance
Russia continues probing NATO resolve but avoids a direct armed incursion after visible allied reinforcement. Denmark, Germany, Poland, Finland and the Baltic states push higher readiness while Washington reiterates Article 5 commitments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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