Possible scenario
Hybrid Escalation
30% Chance
Russia avoids a uniformed ground attack but expands deniable activity against NATO infrastructure. The most likely pressure points are Baltic undersea cables, GPS interference, cyberattacks on public services and drone incursions near bases.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications -1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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