Possible scenario
Trade Bargain Expands
18% Chance
Trump could use chip access as leverage in a broader commercial arrangement with Beijing, especially if the White House prioritizes tariff revenue, export earnings, and visible dealmaking. In this path, Nvidia and AMD win broader access in exchange for tracking, fees, and Chinese purchase commitments.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA+6.2%
- AMD+4.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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