Possible scenario
Controls Tighten
25% Chance
A sizable minority outcome is that defense and China-hawk officials persuade Trump to tighten export restrictions despite lobbying from Nvidia and AMD. The administration may still avoid a total ban, but it could narrow allowable performance thresholds and suspend some high-end approvals.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- NVDA-6.2%
- AMD-5.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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