Licensing Status Quo

The most likely outcome is that the Trump administration preserves the current licensing framework for Nvidia and AMD China sales, while keeping volume caps, end-use checks, and revenue-sharing terms. This balances national-security pressure with U.S. semiconductor revenue, tariff leverage, and the administration's preference for negotiated commercial concessions.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.