Possible scenario
Managed Financing Reset
38% Chance
Oracle, OpenAI, SoftBank and lenders negotiate a controlled reset rather than a disorderly unwind. The $165 billion campus is delayed and repriced, but the broader AI infrastructure program remains intact with phased commitments and tighter milestones.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Utilities -0.6%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- -4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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