Possible scenario
Credit Stress Deepens
20% Chance
The 8% bond yield becomes the central market story as investors question whether Oracle can fund AI capex at the scale previously announced. Rating agencies, lenders and counterparties demand more protection, forcing Oracle to slow or restructure parts of Project Jupiter and related Stargate commitments.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.4%
- Finance -0.7%
- Utilities -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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