Possible scenario
Western Support Deepens
25% Chance
The United States and European NATO members view the 660 km demand as an attempt to force Ukrainian capitulation. They respond with additional air defense, drones, artillery, and looser rules for Ukrainian strikes on Russian military infrastructure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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