Possible scenario
Negotiated Zone Talks
20% Chance
Putin's maximalist declaration becomes a bargaining anchor rather than an immediate operational plan. The United States, Turkey, and European states test whether a narrower demilitarized or monitored zone can be linked to a ceasefire and security guarantees.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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