Possible scenario
Coercive Stalemate
42% Chance
Moscow treats the 660 km security zone as a non-negotiable political objective, but Russian forces lack the capacity to impose it quickly. Kyiv and Western governments reject the demand, producing a prolonged period of strikes, artillery pressure, and diplomatic deadlock.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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