Possible scenario
Bottlenecks Slow Buildout
25% Chance
The investment wave runs into constraints in electricity supply, transmission interconnection, cooling systems, skilled labor, and advanced chip packaging. The AI thesis remains intact, but timelines extend and cost inflation compresses expected returns.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Copper Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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