Possible scenario
AI Capex Correction
22% Chance
Investors conclude that the capital cycle has run ahead of cash-flow visibility, especially if utilization, enterprise adoption, or model monetization disappoint. The result is a valuation reset for AI infrastructure leaders and a tightening in financing for marginal data-center projects.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.6%
- Finance -0.7%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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