Possible scenario
Productive AI Boom
40% Chance
The $10.3 trillion buildout proves broadly financeable because enterprise AI demand, cloud utilization, and semiconductor supply scale together. Investors treat the spending wave as a durable productivity cycle rather than a speculative bubble.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +2.4%
- Utilities +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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