Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic Pickup
42% Chance
Josh Turek's polling lead proves durable enough to overcome Iowa's recent Republican lean. Weak approval for Donald Trump and the open-seat environment after Joni Ernst's retirement help Democrats flip the seat by a small margin.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Energy -0.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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