Possible scenario
Hinson Reclaims Lead
34% Chance
Ashley Hinson consolidates Republican voters and pulls undecided independents back toward the GOP. Iowa's underlying red tilt, national Republican spending, and attacks on Turek's record narrow and then erase his polling advantage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Energy +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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