Possible scenario
Renewed Ethics Scrutiny
40% Chance
The New York Times disclosure gives Texas lawmakers, ethics complainants and open-records litigants a concrete document to revisit Paxton’s wealth disclosures. The most likely path is renewed scrutiny and document requests rather than an immediate criminal case.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.