Possible scenario
Political Containment Holds
25% Chance
Paxton has previously survived impeachment and securities-fraud charges, and his base may treat the deposition story as another hostile-media attack. In this scenario, Republican elected officials avoid forcing a confrontation unless prosecutors or courts produce new evidence.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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