Possible scenario
Tax Blocked Quickly
38% Chance
The court grants an expedited ruling and finds the 0.2% asset transaction tax likely conflicts with state or federal limits on discriminatory digital-asset regulation. This is plausible because both Illinois officials and crypto trade groups appear to want legal certainty before exchanges must redesign compliance systems.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- COIN+2.2%
- +1.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.