Possible scenario
Narrow Compromise Ruling
27% Chance
The court preserves part of the law but narrows how Illinois may apply it, likely excluding most incidental, out-of-state, DeFi, and NFT-linked activity. This path is realistic because Illinois already delayed implementation and exempted NFTs and most DeFi after industry pushback.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Up
Tickers
- COIN+0.5%
- HOOD+0.2%
- CME+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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