Possible scenario
Venezuela Escalation Broadens
20% Chance
The administration links the biodiesel cargoes to Venezuelan and third-country fuel networks, expanding the campaign beyond Cuba-bound shipments. This would be the main path to a larger market reaction because Venezuela-related crude and refined-product flows are more relevant to regional supply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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