Possible scenario
Blockade Becomes Routine
40% Chance
Washington keeps the biodiesel seizures in place and converts the Cuba fuel embargo into a standing maritime enforcement program. Insurers, flag registries, and commodity traders reduce Cuba-bound activity to avoid U.S. penalties, producing a localized fuel squeeze rather than a broad market shock.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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