Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pushback Limits
25% Chance
Mexico, Caribbean governments, and shipping registries challenge the scale of the interdictions, arguing that Washington is stretching sanctions enforcement into a de facto maritime blockade. The White House preserves its Cuba policy but narrows some actions to reduce legal and diplomatic blowback.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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