Possible scenario
Senate Deal Advances
40% Chance
A bipartisan Senate push gives the White House political cover to override or soften the Pentagon hold on Patriot interceptors. Zelenskyy's 30-day refinery truce offer gives skeptical Republicans a concrete de-escalation condition to attach to the transfer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.5%
- Energy -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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