Possible scenario
European Workaround Emerges
20% Chance
If Washington remains divided, NATO allies try to construct a workaround that sends Ukraine interceptors while backfilling donor countries later. This path is slower than a direct U.S. release but politically easier for states worried about their own air-defense coverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- RTX+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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