Possible scenario
Blockade Persists
30% Chance
The Pentagon maintains that U.S. and allied stocks are too depleted to release additional Patriots to Ukraine. Greece keeps its block in place, and Zelenskyy's refinery truce offer fails to produce a rapid bargain.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Industrials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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