Possible scenario
Standoff Grinds On
30% Chance
The confrontation persists without a decisive crackdown or settlement. PTI retains enough street presence to disrupt Lahore, Rawalpindi and Islamabad, while the government relies on arrests, containers, mobile-data restrictions and selective force.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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