Possible scenario
Contained Crackdown
35% Chance
The most likely near-term path is that Punjab police and federal authorities keep PTI protesters from consolidating in Lahore or reaching Islamabad in large numbers. The Sharif government absorbs criticism over arrests and road closures, but avoids a fatal escalation that would force a wider institutional response.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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