Possible scenario
Mediated De-Escalation
20% Chance
Pakistan's military leadership, senior judges or both push the government and PTI toward a managed de-escalation. This outcome becomes more likely if clashes spread but remain below a threshold that threatens the coalition government's survival.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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