Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Widening
25% Chance
The Houthis answer the Pakistani strikes with heavier attacks on Saudi airports, ports, or energy infrastructure. The most likely damage remains limited, but the market reaction is sharper because the Red Sea and Saudi risk premium rises quickly.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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