Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
20% Chance
Oman, the UN, and possibly China push for a pause after the Pakistani strikes, giving Riyadh and Islamabad an off-ramp. The Houthis claim survival, Saudi Arabia claims deterrence, and markets partially reverse the initial risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.8%
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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