Possible scenario
Contained Air Campaign
45% Chance
Pakistan conducts a limited series of strikes against Houthi missile and drone infrastructure, coordinated with Saudi Arabia under the Mecca Defense Pact. The Houthis respond rhetorically or with small-scale launches, but no major Saudi energy or transport facility is disabled.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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