Possible scenario
Ceasefire Frays
20%
−0.3%
The truce comes under strain from shelling, drones, or local commanders disputing corridor boundaries. A breakdown remains plausible because the Oleshky area is close to active Russian positions on the east bank of the Dnipro and Ukrainian fire-control zones from the west bank.
What it moves
- Industrials−0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
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