Possible scenario
Republicans Narrowly Hold
25% Chance
The Insider Advantage polling captures Democratic momentum but overstates actual Democratic performance in several Republican-leaning states. Republicans retain control through either a 51-49 majority or a 50-50 chamber controlled by the Republican vice president.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
- Finance +0.7%
- Industrials +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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