Possible scenario
Bare Democratic Control
30% Chance
Democrats win the chamber but only narrowly, with a 51-49 majority rather than a broad wave. This fits the polling direction but still allows for Republican recoveries in redder states such as Texas, Alaska and Iowa.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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