Possible scenario
Clear Democratic Senate
35% Chance
The Insider Advantage results prove directionally correct and reinforce the Cook, Inside Elections and VoteHub shifts toward Democrats. Democrats win at least 52 seats by flipping multiple Republican-held races such as Maine, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa while holding their core defenses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Finance -0.9%
- Healthcare -0.7%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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