Possible scenario
Outages Deepen
40% Chance
Repairs at the Lukoil-operated Volgograd refinery take weeks rather than days, compounding earlier outages at Rostov and other plants. Moscow prioritizes domestic diesel and gasoline allocation, tightening export controls and forcing regional rationing across southern and central Russia.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Industrials -0.7%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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