Possible scenario
Energy Escalation
20% Chance
Ukraine continues its campaign against Russian refining infrastructure, and Moscow responds with larger strikes on Ukrainian power and logistics assets. The market treats the refining war as a broader escalation risk for Black Sea energy flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.9%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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