Possible scenario
October Ban Holds
45% Chance
Beijing maintains the October refined-fuel export halt while domestic refiners comply, leaving Asian spot gasoline supply tight. Margins remain extreme but do not deteriorate into a broader oil-market crisis because crude supply is not directly constrained.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
- Consumer Services -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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