Possible scenario
Partial Quota Relief
25% Chance
China responds to the price spike by granting limited export flexibility or administrative exemptions to state refiners. This caps the margin blowout without fully normalizing flows because quotas remain tighter than earlier in 2026.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
- Consumer Services +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.