Possible scenario
Regional Supply Response
15% Chance
Refiners in India, South Korea and Southeast Asia raise run rates or redirect cargoes toward gasoline-short markets. The response eases the tightest physical conditions while keeping margins above normal because Chinese exports are still missing.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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