Possible scenario
Arrests contain fallout
45% Chance
Israeli police and prosecutors move quickly enough to reassure the EU, Washington and foreign media that the attack is being treated as a criminal case rather than tolerated vigilantism. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government absorbs criticism from far-right coalition partners but avoids an immediate diplomatic rupture.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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