Possible scenario
Coalition friction widens
25% Chance
Far-right ministers and settler leaders frame the arrests as political persecution, putting pressure on police commanders and the Netanyahu coalition. The government tries to preserve law-enforcement credibility abroad while avoiding a direct confrontation with its pro-settler base.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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