Possible scenario
Sanctions threat escalates
20% Chance
European governments and the United States conclude that arrests are not enough unless prosecutions proceed and settler violence declines. Diplomats begin preparing targeted measures against individuals, outposts and support networks tied to violent attacks.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.