Funding Freeze Persists

38%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.7%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that public debt investors remain unwilling to fund leveraged AI data-center buildouts without much higher coupons, tighter covenants, or customer guarantees. CoreWeave and Nebius continue operating, but liquidity planning becomes the central investor concern.

What it moves

Technology−1.4%
Utilities−0.7%
Finance−0.4%
Industrials−0.2%

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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