Trump Retains Control

30%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Donald Trump rejects the argument that personal loyalty caused the defeat and instead blames weak candidates, donors and insufficiently aggressive Republican messaging. Enough GOP primary voters and conservative media figures stay aligned with him to prevent a clean party break.

What it moves

Consumer Cyclicals−0.2%
Finance−0.2%
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up
Market volatility▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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