GOP Pivots Post-Trump

35%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.1%on the S&P 500, if it happens

Republican donors, governors and congressional leaders treat the 2026 defeat as evidence that Trump-centered politics has become electorally toxic. The party begins a controlled search for a 2028 nominee who can retain Trump voters without making loyalty to Donald Trump the central test.

What it moves

Finance+0.3%
Technology+0.3%
10-year Treasury yield▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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