Possible scenario
Orderly AI Reset
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a controlled slowdown in AI infrastructure spending rather than a disorderly crash. Hyperscalers stretch data-center buildouts, renegotiate chip orders, and shift spending toward utilization and software monetization while global growth takes a modest hit.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Utilities -0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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