Possible scenario
Sharp AI Correction
30% Chance
A more damaging scenario emerges if investors conclude that AI demand cannot justify the scale of announced capex. Equity losses broaden from chipmakers to cloud providers, private-credit lenders, construction firms, and power suppliers tied to data-center expansion.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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